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20th February

Dr Paul Ormerod

Why are so many economists opposed to Brexit?

Monday 20th February: Paul Ormerod

Paul Ormerod is a partner of Volterra Partners and a Visiting Professor in the Centre for Decision Making at University College London (UCL). He has written 4 bestselling books, Death of Economics, Butterfly Economics, Why Most Things Fail and Positive Linking. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy of Social Sciences in 2006, and has been awarded an honorary DSc by Durham University for ‘the distinction of your contribution to economics’. After reading economics at Cambridge and taking the MPhil in economics at Oxford, Paul started his career as a macroeconomic forecaster at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).  He was a founder of the Henley Centre for Forecasting in the 1980s, which the founders sold to Martin Sorrel’s WPP Group in the 1990s.

Paul has a number of academic publications querying the inherent feasibility of accurate short-term macroeconomic forecasting, including a paper in Physica A, the world’s leading statistical physics journal, on “Random matrix theory and the failures of macroeconomic forecasting”. You can watch Paul summarising his economic forecasts for 2017 below.

Following a Financial Times survey in January that showed that nine times as many economists are opposed to Brexit as are in favour. Paul Ormerod explains why the thought processes of economists traps them in the past, and makes it difficult for them to appreciate the importance of change and innovation. He will expand on how Brexit opposition has intensified over the past year, despite the strong post-Brexit performance of the UK economy.

Royal Overseas League, St James's Street, SW1A 1LR. 6.30pm - 8pm.

Non-members can book Early Bird tickets here for £15 (£10 for students).  Members can reserve their free place here.

 

 HEAR OUR EXPERT ECONOMISTS' FORECASTS FOR 2017
Oxford vs. Cambridge vs. LSE

Vicky Pryce discusses Brexit and the implications for 2017 Economy

Paul Ormerod discusses Brexit, 'Project Fear' and why he is 'reasonably optimistic'

Graham Gudgin discusses Brexit and why 2017 will be a 'normal year'

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The Economic Research Council's "Clash of the Titans" is an economic forecasting competition run every year between professors from Oxford, Cambridge and LSE.  Members of the public also enter their forecasts for the next year.

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