On the 4th December 2012, the Economic Research Council hosted the second annual "Clash of the Titans" event. We invited three professors from the top three university economics departments in the country (Linda Yueh from Oxford, Michael Kitson from Cambridge, and Ethan Ilzetzki from LSE) to give their predictions for the year ahead.
We asked them to focus on a number of categories:
-
UK GDP growth (Quarterly, % change)
-
UK Inflation Rate (CPI All Items, % change on previous year, averaged over 3 month period)
-
UK Unemployment Rate (Quarterly, all 16 and over, SA)
-
UK Interest Rate (Quarterly average of the official Bank Rate)
-
Tie-breaker: The lowest point that Greek 10 year Government Bond yields would reach in 2013
We also invited members of the audience and ERC website visitors to give their predictions.
You can see last year's results here.
This year's results so far:
(As of 06/06/13)
| Official Competition Standings | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pos | Score | |
| 1. | LSE (Ethan Ilzetzki) | 11 |
| 2. | Cambridge (Michael Kitson) | 19 (18.7) |
| 3. | Oxford (Linda Yueh) | 19 (28.7) |
| Top 3 Public Predictions | ||
| Pos | Score | |
| 1. | Jeremy Warner | 5 |
| 2. | Yasser Dallal | 6 |
| 3. | Tom Vosa | 7 (1.3) |
| (Click here for the full public list) | ||
| Top 3 University Teams | ||
| Pos | Score | |
| 1. | Cambridge | 22 |
| 2. | LSE | 23 |
| 3. | Lancaster | 27 |
| (Click here for the full university list) | ||
(The score is calculated as the sum of the absolute differences between the predictions and reality, multiplied by ten; lowest score wins. The number in brackets represents the tie-breaker score where appropriate).
Below are their predictions in more detail:
Actual Data
| Q4 '12 | Q1 '13 | Q2 '13 | Q3 '13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | -0.3 | 0.3* | 25/07/13 | 25/10/13 |
| Inflation | 2.7 | 2.8 | 16/07/13 | 15/10/13 |
| Unemployment | 7.8 | 7.8 | 14/08/13 | 13/11/13 |
| Interest Rates | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 05/09/13 |
| Greek Bond Yields | 10.15% | |||
*Second Estimate; Final Estimate due on 27/06/13
Average Forecast (of all 310 participants)
| Q4 '12 | Q1 '13 | Q2 '13 | Q3 '13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.2 (+0.5) | 0.2 (-0.1) | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Inflation | 2.5 (-0.2) | 2.6 (-0.2) | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment | 7.9 (+0.1) | 8.0 (+0.2) | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| Interest Rates | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 |
| Greek Bond Yields | 12.7% | |||
Cambridge (Michael Kitson)
| Q4 '12 | Q1 '13 | Q2 '13 | Q3 '13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.0 (+0.3) | 0.2 (-0.1) | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Inflation | 2.9 (+0.2) | 2.7 (-0.1) | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Unemployment | 8.3 (+0.5) | 8.5 (+0.7) | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| Interest Rates | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 |
| Greek Bond Yields | 10% | |||
LSE (Ethan Ilzetzki)
| Q4 '12 | Q1 '13 | Q2 '13 | Q3 '13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.4 (+0.7) | 0.3 (+0.0) | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Inflation | 2.6 (-0.1) | 2.6 (-0.2) | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Unemployment | 7.8 (+0.0) | 7.7 (-0.1) | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Interest Rates | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 |
| Greek Bond Yields | 15.5% | |||
Oxford (Linda Yueh)
| Q4 '12 | Q1 '13 | Q2 '13 | Q3 '13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | -0.1 (+0.2) | 0.2 (-0.1) | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Inflation | 2.4 (-0.3) | 2.3 (-0.5) | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Unemployment | 8.1 (+0.3) | 8.3 (+0.5) | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| Interest Rates | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 (+0.0) | 0.5 |
| Greek Bond Yields | 11% | |||