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Clash of the Titans

The Clash of the Titans Blog

Wednesday
Nov132013

LSE Wins Clash of the Titans II

LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki has won the second annual Clash of the Titans forecasting competition, finishing ahead of Oxford's Linda Yueh and Cambridge's Michael Kitson.

Professor Ilzetzki's optimism was rewarded, as the unemployment rate has remained lower this year than many people predicted back in December 2012.  He was also the closest of the three professors on the rate of inflation, generally aiming for the middle position between Professor Kitson (with higher predicted inflation) and Professor Yueh (with lower inflation).

The winning forecasts:

  Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13
GDP 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5
Inflation 2.6  2.6 2.7 2.5
Unemployment 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.1
Interest Rates 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Greek Bond Yields 15.5%

 

This is the first time that LSE have won the competition.  Last year, Oxford's Professor John Muellbauer beat Cambridge's Hashem Pesaran and LSE's Danny Quah to claim the inaugural title.  Click here to read more about the previous winners.

The public competition is not yet over, as any revision to the third quarter GDP figure (previously announced as 0.8%) could have a significant impact on the top ten.  To see the current standings, click here.

On the 10th December, the Economic Research Council are inviting three prestigious alumni to represent the three universities in the third annual Clash of the Titans competition.  Can Oxford win their title back from LSE?  Will Cambridge even up the series with their first win?  Or might LSE be the first university to retain the title for two years running?  To find out more about the event, and to book your place, please click here.

« CPI Inflation Hits 2% Target | Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.6% »

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