Recently Added

03/02/16: Chart of the Week: Private Housing Rental Prices

02/02/16: B&O Vol 45 No 4 (ERC Members Only)

28/01/16: Clash of the Titans: Q4 GDP Growth of 0.5%

 Upcoming Events

15/02/16: Huw Kwon

08/03/16: Angela Knight, CBE, and John Whiting

19/04/16: Richard Murphy

Listen Again:
Click on the logo above to hear Greg Opie on Share Radio talking about the latest Chart of the Week.

First Name
Last Name
Email Address
Select the mailing lists you wish to join:
Event Notice:
Weekly Digest:

Clash of the Titans V

Supported by PwC

     

#cott15

       

On 2nd December 2015, the Economic Research Council hosted the fifth annual "Clash of the Titans" event.  We invited three notable economic alumni from the top three university economics departments in the country (Sean Holly from Cambridge, Rain Newton-Smith from LSE, and Jonathan Portes from Oxford) to give their predictions for the year ahead.

We asked them to focus on a number of categories:

  • UK GDP growth (Quarterly, % change)
  • UK Inflation Rate (CPI All Items, % change on previous year, averaged over 3 month period)
  • UK Unemployment Rate (Quarterly, all 16 and over, SA)
  • UK Interest Rate (Quarterly average of the official Bank Rate)
  • UK Average Earnings Growth (Quarterly % growth on same 3 month period in previous year, excluding bonuses and arrears)
  • Tie-breaker: The most expensive that a barrel of Brent Crude oil will be (in dollars) between 5th January and 31st October 2016.

We are no longer accepting entries to this year's public competition.  Final results will be announced on 17/11/16, but we will be updating the scoreboard on this page as the year progresses.  You can see a list of previous winners of the competition here.

Standings as of 28th January (Q4 GDP Growth):

Official Competition Standings
Pos Score
1. LSE (Rain Newton-Smith) 3 (29)
2. Oxford (Jonathan Portes) 3 (37)
2. Cambridge (Sean Holly) 6
Top 3 Public Predictions
Pos Score
1. James Watson 0 (13)
2= Dilip Shah 0 (15)
2= Jonathan Gusson 0 (15)
(Click here for the full public list)
(The score is calculated as the sum of the absolute differences between the predictions and reality, multiplied by ten; lowest score wins.  The number in brackets represents the tie-breaker score where appropriate).

 

Below are their predictions in more detail:

Actual Data

  Q4 '15Q1 '16Q2 '16Q3 '16
GDP 0.5* 27/04/16 27/07/16 27/10/16
Inflation 0.1 12/04/16 19/07/16 18/10/16
Unemployment 17/02/16 18/05/16 17/08/16 16/11/16
Interest Rates 0.5 17/03/16 16/06/16 15/09/16
Average Earnings 17/02/16 18/05/16 17/08/16 16/11/16
Oil Price High $37 (5th January)

*Preliminary Estimate. Second Estimate due 25/02/16.
(Dates indicate when they will be announced)

 

Average Forecast (557 Entries) 

  Q4 '15Q1 '16Q2 '16Q3 '16
GDP 0.6 (+0.1) 0.6 0.6 0.6
Inflation 0.1 (+0.0) 0.3 0.5 0.7
Unemployment 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Interest Rates 0.5 (+0.0) 0.5 0.6 0.7
Average Earnings 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Oil Price High $66

 

Sean Holly (Cambridge) 

  Q4 '15Q1 '16Q2 '16Q3 '16
GDP 0.9 (+0.4) 0.6 0.7 0.7
Inflation -0.1 (-0.2) 0.0 0.5 1.0
Unemployment 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1
Interest Rates 0.5 (+0.0) 0.5 0.5 0.5
Average Earnings 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Oil Price High $55

 

Rain Newton-Smith (LSE) 

  Q4 '15Q1 '16Q2 '16Q3 '16
GDP 0.7 (+0.2) 0.7 0.7 0.6
Inflation 0.2 (+0.1) 1.0 1.2 1.4
Unemployment 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Interest Rates 0.5 (+0.0) 0.5 0.7 0.8
Average Earnings 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.7
Oil Price High $66

 

Jonathan Portes (Oxford) 

  Q4 '15Q1 '16Q2 '16Q3 '16
GDP 0.6 (+0.1) 0.4 0.3 0.3
Inflation -0.1 (-0.2) 0.0 0.3 0.5
Unemployment 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2
Interest Rates 0.5 (+0.0) 0.6 0.8 0.8
Average Earnings 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
Oil Price High $74